Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jeremy Strong win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $83 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$83.17
-$8.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+16 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $79.7 | $79.52 | -$0.18 | 53% 23594-20788 (44382) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $3.79 | $1.8 | -$1.99 | 39% 2901-4499 (7400) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.91 | $1.47 | -$4.34 | 48% 1352-1491 (2843) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.11 | $0.3 | -$0.81 | 42% 2337-3187 (5524) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.44 | $0.07 | -$0.38 | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $89.57 | $0.01 | -$0.94 | 43% 8758-11401 (20159) |
Invested
$79.7
Value
$79.52
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
23594-20788 (44382)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$1.99
Record
39%
2901-4499 (7400)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$4.34
Record
48%
1352-1491 (2843)
Invested
$1.11
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$0.81
Record
42%
2337-3187 (5524)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.38
Record
68%
740-356 (1096)
Invested
$89.57
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.94
Record
43%
8758-11401 (20159)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.