Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Aug 19
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.3K
$345.57
66.3¢ → 74.4¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
134h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 seal7 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$150.84 | 49% 284-294 (578) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 61.7¢ | $586.22 | $520.4 | +$20.41 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $158.36 | $334.75 | +$176.39 | 55% 435-354 (789) |
 GonTanakaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.9¢ | $4.83 | $2.66 | -$2.17 | 58% 167-122 (289) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 59.3¢ | $1.22 | $1.37 | +$0.1 | 52% 2371-2155 (4526) |
seal7Invested
$1,335.85
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$150.84
Record
49%
284-294 (578)
Invested
$586.22
Value
$520.4
PnL
+$20.41
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$158.36
Value
$334.75
PnL
+$176.39
Record
55%
435-354 (789)
GonTanakaCTR<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$2.66
PnL
-$2.17
Record
58%
167-122 (289)
Invested
$1.22
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.1
Record
52%
2371-2155 (4526)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.