Will Jeremiyah Love win the 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$29.93

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 99.2¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,931

Combined PnL+$427.7

Yes3 traders

Total Value$340.07

Total Shares2,345

Combined PnL-$397.76

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AU auros2	No	$599.16	$599.16	+$149.81	— 4-0 (4)
Hyperlong	Noavg 78.9¢	$379.1	$503.7	+$124.6	47% 320-366 (686)
ND ndb1	Noavg 72.4¢	$275.42	$407.89	+$132.47	64% 1050-593 (1643)
AN ancianoCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$284.86	$318.63	-$418.36	54% 1458-1225 (2683)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 95.5¢	$111.29	$123.52	+$15.39	45% 2965-3664 (6629)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.29	$21.2	+$20.91	19% 2872-12252 (15124)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100	Noavg 72¢	$11.67	$17.1	+$5.43	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.7¢	$0.54	$0.23	-$0.31	23% 1782-6021 (7803)

auros2

Invested

$599.16

Value

$599.16

PnL

+$149.81

Record

—

4-0 (4)

Hyperlong

Invested

$379.1

Value

$503.7

PnL

+$124.6

Record

47%

320-366 (686)

ndb1

Invested

$275.42

Value

$407.89

PnL

+$132.47

Record

64%

1050-593 (1643)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$284.86

Value

$318.63

PnL

-$418.36

Record

54%

1458-1225 (2683)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$111.29

Value

$123.52

PnL

+$15.39

Record

45%

2965-3664 (6629)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$21.2

PnL

+$20.91

Record

19%

2872-12252 (15124)

CUTJALENHURTS<$100

Invested

$11.67

Value

$17.1

PnL

+$5.43

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.31

Record

23%

1782-6021 (7803)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

65h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.