Will Jensen Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 83%
$3.3K
$5.69
95¢ → 95.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 95%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 95.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | +$8.51 | — 6-0 (6) |
SI SitsToPee | Noavg 95.1¢ | $475.6 | $476 | +$0.4 | — 1-1 (2) |
 TBill1CTR | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $257.7 | $252.26 | -$5.43 | 0% 0-106 (106) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 95.3¢ | $382.15 | $191.35 | -$0.2 | — 3-4 (7) |
 UbuntuTrading<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $88.71 | $89.18 | +$0.47 | 47% 1611-1838 (3449) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $17 | $18.94 | +$1.94 | 73% 1113-422 (1535) |
Invested
$2,507.37
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$8.51
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$475.6
Value
$476
PnL
+$0.4
Record
—
1-1 (2)
TBill1CTRInvested
$257.7
Value
$252.26
PnL
-$5.43
Record
0%
0-106 (106)
Invested
$382.15
Value
$191.35
PnL
-$0.2
Record
—
3-4 (7)
UbuntuTrading<$100Invested
$88.71
Value
$89.18
PnL
+$0.47
Record
47%
1611-1838 (3449)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$17
Value
$18.94
PnL
+$1.94
Record
73%
1113-422 (1535)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.