Will Jenna Dewan win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 96¢ · $530 held · ends Dec 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$529.53

Combined PnL

$0.93

Smart Money Entry

87.2¢ → 96.4¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$526.19

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$48.44

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.34

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$47.51

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GUHHH	Noavg 85¢	$287.94	$326.08	+$38.14	78% 880-250 (1130)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 89¢	$102.4	$110.11	+$7.71	49% 2620-2678 (5298)
macrosteaks<$100	Noavg 93¢	$87.42	$90.01	+$2.59	55% 3435-2832 (6267)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yes	$118.17	$2.07	-$48.03	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.39	$0.54	+$0.09	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yes	$0.48	$0.48	+$0.22	58% 913-654 (1567)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.26	$0.26	+$0.21	62% 14548-9094 (23642)

GUHHH

Invested

$287.94

Value

$326.08

PnL

+$38.14

Record

78%

880-250 (1130)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$102.4

Value

$110.11

PnL

+$7.71

Record

49%

2620-2678 (5298)

macrosteaks<$100

Invested

$87.42

Value

$90.01

PnL

+$2.59

Record

55%

3435-2832 (6267)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.17

Value

$2.07

PnL

-$48.03

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.54

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.48

PnL

+$0.22

Record

58%

913-654 (1567)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.21

Record

62%

14548-9094 (23642)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.