Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 60¢ · $321 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$321.43
-$0.7
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $315.81 | $308.28 | -$2.21 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.2¢ | $191.67 | $184.97 | -$6.72 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.4¢ | $118.48 | $123.31 | +$4.5 | |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $9.15 | $9.15 | +$0 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4 | -$0.7 | 73% 2835-1046 (3881) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.