Will JD Vance be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $212 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$212.2
$0
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $76.57 | $76.57 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 13% 50-327 (377) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 21% 75-278 (353) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.98 | +$0 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.13 | $16.13 | +$0 | 40% 329-494 (823) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $15.12 | $15.12 | +$0 | 45% 306-367 (673) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.29 | $13.29 | +$0 | 47% 292-335 (627) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.16 | $10.16 | +$0 | 42% 321-439 (760) |
Invested
$76.57
Value
$76.57
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
13%
50-327 (377)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
75-278 (353)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$16.13
Value
$16.13
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
329-494 (823)
Invested
$15.12
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
306-367 (673)
Invested
$13.29
Value
$13.29
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
292-335 (627)
Invested
$10.16
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
321-439 (760)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
alex20011
No — $76.57
god83743894
No — $29.97
godblessme2026
No — $29.97
luciebot
No — $20.98
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $16.13
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $15.12
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $13.29
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $10.16