Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Jayden Quaintance win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.76

Combined PnL

-$65.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.76

Total Shares3,514

Combined PnL-$65.83

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$11.06	$0.5	-$10.56	42% 565-794 (1359)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$11.5	$0.47	-$11.04	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$292.09	$0.24	-$30.89	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yes	$0.21	$0.21	-$4.89	50% 7809-7848 (15657)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$4.16	$0.17	-$3.99	25% 181-537 (718)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.01	$0.08	-$1.93	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.84	$0.03	-$0.81	23% 177-599 (776)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$30.63	$0.03	-$0.95	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.39	$0.02	-$0.37	44% 4029-5217 (9246)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.32	$0.01	-$0.3	51% 218-210 (428)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.11	$0	-$0.1	35% 104-196 (300)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.06

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$10.56

Record

42%

565-794 (1359)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.5

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$11.04

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$292.09

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$30.89

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$4.89

Record

50%

7809-7848 (15657)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$3.99

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.01

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$1.93

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.81

Record

23%

177-599 (776)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.63

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.95

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.37

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.3

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

104-196 (300)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.