Will Jaxson Smith-Njigba win the 2026 NFL MVP?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Feb 15, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Feb 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$55.57

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 97.1¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,360

Combined PnL+$48.47

Yes4 traders

Total Value$98.43

Total Shares2,205

Combined PnL+$7.1

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

531h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Hyperlong	Noavg 96.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$28.01	47% 320-364 (684)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 96.3¢	$26.03	$1.2K	+$41.71	45% 2962-3655 (6617)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.9¢	$389.61	$372.26	-$17.36	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.73	$128.86	-$5.87	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
AN ancianoCTR	Yes	$249.25	$89.43	+$3.36	54% 1415-1224 (2639)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$28.33	$26.47	+$1.97	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$3.72	$4.55	+$0.83	40% 256-391 (647)
Parz1vaICTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.72	$3.54	+$2.82	72% 3577-1363 (4940)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.36	$0.91	+$0.09	17% 102-504 (606)

Hyperlong

Invested

$2,500.24

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$28.01

Record

47%

320-364 (684)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$26.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$41.71

Record

45%

2962-3655 (6617)

god83743894

Invested

$389.61

Value

$372.26

PnL

-$17.36

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

smallreceipt

Invested

$134.73

Value

$128.86

PnL

-$5.87

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$249.25

Value

$89.43

PnL

+$3.36

Record

54%

1415-1224 (2639)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.33

Value

$26.47

PnL

+$1.97

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.72

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.83

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

Parz1vaICTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$2.82

Record

72%

3577-1363 (4940)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.09

Record

17%

102-504 (606)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

531h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.