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8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 93¢ · $330 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$330.22
$4.49
91.1¢ → 92.5¢
+2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 37%
Freshness
Late
146h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $61.94 | $63.22 | +$1.28 | 52% 5311-4816 (10127) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $54.54 | $55.8 | +$1.26 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.5¢ | $43.64 | $44.83 | +$1.18 | 35% 2903-5326 (8229) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $40.5 | $41.85 | +$1.35 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $39.27 | $40.44 | +$1.17 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $32.62 | $32.62 | +$0 | — 0-13 (13) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $27.6 | $27.9 | +$0.3 | 11% 35-270 (305) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $13.86 | $14.01 | +$0.15 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $11.77 | $9.56 | -$2.21 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
Invested
$61.94
Value
$63.22
PnL
+$1.28
Record
52%
5311-4816 (10127)
Invested
$54.54
Value
$55.8
PnL
+$1.26
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.64
Value
$44.83
PnL
+$1.18
Record
35%
2903-5326 (8229)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$41.85
PnL
+$1.35
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$39.27
Value
$40.44
PnL
+$1.17
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$32.62
Value
$32.62
PnL
+$0
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$0.3
Record
11%
35-270 (305)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$14.01
PnL
+$0.15
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$9.56
PnL
-$2.21
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.