Will Jared Goff win the 2026 NFL MVP?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$79.42
97¢ → 96.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
523h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hyperlong | Noavg 97.2¢ | $613 | $592.14 | -$7.93 | 43% 235-315 (550) |
DO donthackme | Noavg 96.8¢ | $12.57 | $230.57 | +$10.53 | 73% 12604-4594 (17198) |
AN anciano | Noavg 97¢ | $194 | $187.7 | -$1 | 52% 1173-1079 (2252) |
WA wan123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $32.13 | $95.51 | +$63.38 | 39% 197-311 (508) |
 DEGENKHANCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $8.55 | $23 | +$14.44 | 66% 1109-565 (1674) |
HyperlongInvested
$613
Value
$592.14
PnL
-$7.93
Record
43%
235-315 (550)
Invested
$12.57
Value
$230.57
PnL
+$10.53
Record
73%
12604-4594 (17198)
Invested
$194
Value
$187.7
PnL
-$1
Record
52%
1173-1079 (2252)
Invested
$32.13
Value
$95.51
PnL
+$63.38
Record
39%
197-311 (508)
DEGENKHANCTR<$100Invested
$8.55
Value
$23
PnL
+$14.44
Record
66%
1109-565 (1674)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.