Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 41¢ · $898 held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$897.74
-$206.75
48.1¢ → 40.8¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Yesavg 45.3¢ | $645.46 | $543.32 | -$102.15 | 49% 1812-1893 (3705) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 60¢ | $42.61 | $191.22 | -$86.05 | 55% 444-364 (808) |
 clazzy1CTR | Yesavg 33.1¢ | $98.17 | $129.43 | +$31.26 | 62% 373-227 (600) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 86.9¢ | $80.67 | $30.85 | -$49.82 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $2.92 | $2.92 | +$0 | 32% 4334-9323 (13657) |
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$645.46
Value
$543.32
PnL
-$102.15
Record
49%
1812-1893 (3705)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$42.61
Value
$191.22
PnL
-$86.05
Record
55%
444-364 (808)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$98.17
Value
$129.43
PnL
+$31.26
Record
62%
373-227 (600)
Invested
$80.67
Value
$30.85
PnL
-$49.82
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
Invested
$2.92
Value
$2.92
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4334-9323 (13657)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.