Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 3.5 and 3.9% in 2026?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Jan 22, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 22, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.4

Combined PnL

-$127.78

Smart Money Entry

16.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$0.4

Total Shares795

Combined PnL-$127.78

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$43.28	$0.13	-$43.16	24% 295-911 (1206)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$28.04	$0.08	-$27.95	45% 5737-6983 (12720)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.6¢	$27.41	$0.08	-$27.33	61% 14390-9239 (23629)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$5.6	$0.02	-$5.58	40% 5249-8015 (13264)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$5.5	$0.02	-$5.48	30% 2232-5306 (7538)
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$4.97	$0.01	-$4.96	27% 237-653 (890)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.76	$0.01	-$0.74	63% 5496-3250 (8746)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$4.45	$0.01	-$4.44	27% 217-590 (807)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$3.33	$0.01	-$3.32	17% 232-1101 (1333)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$3.33	$0.01	-$3.32	16% 262-1337 (1599)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.83	$0	-$0.83	50% 472-466 (938)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.67	$0	-$0.66	25% 1619-4838 (6457)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.28

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$43.16

Record

24%

295-911 (1206)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.04

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$27.95

Record

45%

5737-6983 (12720)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.41

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$27.33

Record

61%

14390-9239 (23629)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.58

Record

40%

5249-8015 (13264)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$5.48

Record

30%

2232-5306 (7538)

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.96

Record

27%

237-653 (890)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.74

Record

63%

5496-3250 (8746)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.44

Record

27%

217-590 (807)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.32

Record

17%

232-1101 (1333)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$3.32

Record

16%

262-1337 (1599)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

472-466 (938)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

PnL

-$0.66

Record

25%

1619-4838 (6457)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.