Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 41¢ · $951 held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$950.7
$449.78
35¢ → 41¢
+17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Yes | $761.84 | $761.84 | +$426.01 | 55% 444-364 (808) |
 clazzy1CTR | Noavg 34.6¢ | $155.76 | $184.05 | +$24.91 | 62% 373-227 (600) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 40.9¢ | $2.05 | $2.05 | +$0 | 32% 4334-9323 (13657) |
ME merodCTR<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $2.77 | $1.91 | -$0.86 | 52% 2423-2215 (4638) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $1.14 | $0.85 | -$0.29 | 52% 4916-4514 (9430) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$761.84
Value
$761.84
PnL
+$426.01
Record
55%
444-364 (808)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$155.76
Value
$184.05
PnL
+$24.91
Record
62%
373-227 (600)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4334-9323 (13657)
Invested
$2.77
Value
$1.91
PnL
-$0.86
Record
52%
2423-2215 (4638)
Invested
$1.14
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
4916-4514 (9430)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.