Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Japan's core CPI increase by at least 4.0% in 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.08
-$88.69
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $37.1 | $0.45 | -$36.65 | 25% 180-534 (714) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $16.13 | $0.19 | -$15.94 | 30% 320-759 (1079) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $10.75 | $0.13 | -$10.63 | 31% 364-814 (1178) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $10.75 | $0.13 | -$10.63 | 30% 350-813 (1163) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $5.6 | $0.07 | -$5.53 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $4.97 | $0.06 | -$4.91 | 28% 231-602 (833) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $4.45 | $0.05 | -$4.4 | 28% 212-552 (764) |
Invested
$37.1
Value
$0.45
PnL
-$36.65
Record
25%
180-534 (714)
Invested
$16.13
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$15.94
Record
30%
320-759 (1079)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$10.63
Record
31%
364-814 (1178)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$10.63
Record
30%
350-813 (1163)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$5.53
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$4.97
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$4.91
Record
28%
231-602 (833)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.4
Record
28%
212-552 (764)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.