Will Japan win the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 6, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.8K
$35.02
93.6¢ → 95.8¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LazarusGroup | Noavg 93.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$37.41 | — |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 95.7¢ | $308.45 | $256.6 | +$0.17 | 66% 4051-2064 (6115) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $158.9 | $156.34 | -$2.56 | 4% 5-125 (130) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $0.8 | $0.79 | -$0.01 | 52% 247-230 (477) |
LazarusGroupInvested
$1,345.22
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$37.41
Record
—
Invested
$308.45
Value
$256.6
PnL
+$0.17
Record
66%
4051-2064 (6115)
Invested
$158.9
Value
$156.34
PnL
-$2.56
Record
4%
5-125 (130)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
247-230 (477)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.