Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jannik Sinner be Number 1 on the End of Year ATP Rankings
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $33 held · ends Jan 15, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$32.79
$-1.8K
83.7¢ → 0.3¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $19.76 | $24.03 | +$4.19 | 53% 8615-7689 (16304) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063cCTR | Yesavg 91.6¢ | $1.5K | $4.7 | $-1.4K | 68% 740-356 (1096) |
TH thoodrCTR | Yesavg 63.2¢ | $382 | $3.62 | -$378.38 | 97% 693-25 (718) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.