Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will James Wood win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.25

Combined PnL

-$38.24

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.25

Total Shares2,496

Combined PnL-$38.24

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.47	-$17.69	34% 3345-6360 (9705)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$6.2	$0.4	-$5.95	40% 256-391 (647)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.33	-$12.73	38% 7188-11819 (19007)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.71	$0.04	-$1.67	56% 18837-15002 (33839)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.21	$0.01	-$0.2	55% 3185-2640 (5825)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$17.69

Record

34%

3345-6360 (9705)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$5.95

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$12.73

Record

38%

7188-11819 (19007)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.67

Record

56%

18837-15002 (33839)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

3185-2640 (5825)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

38h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.