Will James Talarico be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
$3.0K
-$153.58
97.6¢ → 96.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 96%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 97.6¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$153.75 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
11 11122<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $19.29 | +$0.12 | 44% 1401-1816 (3217) |
CO cocococococo<$100 | Noavg 92.1¢ | $9.21 | $9.65 | +$0.05 | 52% 1665-1534 (3199) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.