Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will James Hagens win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 12¢ · $281 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$281.47
$227.7
Research grade
AvoidYes at 12%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CR crckrCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $31.84 | $134.89 | +$81.63 | 31% 740-1614 (2354) |
NO northstockCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $33.95 | $133.54 | +$139.71 | 40% 256-391 (647) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.68 | $6.33 | +$5.65 | 46% 6421-7654 (14075) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $4.96 | $5.58 | +$0.62 | 40% 6648-10054 (16702) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $1.03 | $1.13 | +$0.09 | 51% 1115-1077 (2192) |
Invested
$31.84
Value
$134.89
PnL
+$81.63
Record
31%
740-1614 (2354)
Invested
$33.95
Value
$133.54
PnL
+$139.71
Record
40%
256-391 (647)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$5.65
Record
46%
6421-7654 (14075)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
$5.58
PnL
+$0.62
Record
40%
6648-10054 (16702)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.13
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
1115-1077 (2192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.