Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will James Fishback win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $360 held · ends Nov 7, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 7, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$360.39

Combined PnL

$24.8K

Smart Money Entry

0.6¢ → 0.1¢

-92% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$360.39

Total Shares97,672

Combined PnL+$24.8K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JJoCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$124.97	$124.97	+$7.8K	66% 938-493 (1431)
0X 0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR	Yesavg 0.4¢	$118.11	$118.11	+$14.3K	64% 154-88 (242)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$44.45	$44.45	+$2.9K	49% 1813-1894 (3707)
NY NyetRiskCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$160.93	$30.9	-$130.03	7% 14-186 (200)
RE rebotsliafCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$94.04	$21.67	-$72.37	25% 183-563 (746)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$27.41	$7.5	-$19.91	69% 2061-935 (2996)
Gr33dCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$7.05	$7.05	+$18.23	79% 2705-698 (3403)
DR DreamwireCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$8.59	$1.65	-$6.94	83% 2496-515 (3011)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$7.81	$1.5	-$6.31	56% 955-755 (1710)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.84	$0.93	-$3.91	57% 13150-10021 (23171)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$4.43	$0.85	-$3.58	45% 1821-2263 (4084)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$0.67	$0.67	+$0.67	73% 8239-3103 (11342)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.72	$0.15	-$0.57	73% 2904-1057 (3961)

JJoCTR

Yes

Invested

$124.97

Value

$124.97

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

66%

938-493 (1431)

0x62764005C3F58450d21DA9984F6eab56cF3c2Dd9-1765423921985CTR

Yes

Invested

$118.11

Value

$118.11

PnL

+$14.3K

Record

64%

154-88 (242)

0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.45

Value

$44.45

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

49%

1813-1894 (3707)

NyetRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.93

Value

$30.9

PnL

-$130.03

Record

14-186 (200)

rebotsliafCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.04

Value

$21.67

PnL

-$72.37

Record

25%

183-563 (746)

GollumGekkoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.41

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$19.91

Record

69%

2061-935 (2996)

Gr33dCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

+$18.23

Record

79%

2705-698 (3403)

DreamwireCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.59

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$6.94

Record

83%

2496-515 (3011)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$6.31

Record

56%

955-755 (1710)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.84

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$3.91

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$3.58

Record

45%

1821-2263 (4084)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0.67

Record

73%

8239-3103 (11342)

Tenebrus7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.72

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.57

Record

73%

2904-1057 (3961)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 8

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.