Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $857 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 50%
$856.63
-$44.37
99.1¢ → 99.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 99%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
98h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $924.6 | $841.73 | -$45.86 | 52% 30872-28974 (59846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $13.04 | $13.93 | +$1.22 | 58% 21213-15412 (36625) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.57 | $0.88 | +$0.31 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.07 | -$0.04 | 17% 1312-6543 (7855) |
balthazarInvested
$924.6
Value
$841.73
PnL
-$45.86
Record
52%
30872-28974 (59846)
Invested
$13.04
Value
$13.93
PnL
+$1.22
Record
58%
21213-15412 (36625)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.57
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.31
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$0.04
Record
17%
1312-6543 (7855)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.