Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the highest-scoring RB of the 2026-27 NFL season?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 70¢ · $845 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes70¢No30¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$845.13

Combined PnL

$115.83

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 70¢

+34% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$745.3

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL+$173.51

No6 traders

Total Value$99.83

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$57.68

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

539h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH ChuDebbieSharp	Yesavg 56.2¢	$451.3	$519.86	+$108.17	52% 171-155 (326)
Hyperlong	Yes	$151.11	$151.11	+$48.75	43% 233-314 (547)
DEGENKHAN<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$57.73	$74.32	+$16.59	66% 1108-565 (1673)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 45.8¢	$85	$57	-$28	17% 402-2020 (2422)
JustADonkCTR<$100	Noavg 59¢	$29.5	$15	-$14.5	55% 912-754 (1666)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$14	$8.4	-$5.6	66% 910-479 (1389)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$11	$7.12	-$3.88	16% 247-1263 (1510)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$8.8	$6.3	-$3.1	17% 1028-5005 (6033)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$8.6	$6	-$2.6	30% 1409-3213 (4622)

ChuDebbieSharp

Yes

Invested

$451.3

Value

$519.86

PnL

+$108.17

Record

52%

171-155 (326)

Hyperlong

Yes

Invested

$151.11

Value

$151.11

PnL

+$48.75

Record

43%

233-314 (547)

DEGENKHAN<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.73

Value

$74.32

PnL

+$16.59

Record

66%

1108-565 (1673)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$85

Value

$57

PnL

-$28

Record

17%

402-2020 (2422)

JustADonkCTR<$100

Invested

$29.5

Value

$15

PnL

-$14.5

Record

55%

912-754 (1666)

ndb1CTR<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$5.6

Record

66%

910-479 (1389)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$11

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$3.88

Record

16%

247-1263 (1510)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

$6.3

PnL

-$3.1

Record

17%

1028-5005 (6033)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$8.6

Value

PnL

-$2.6

Record

30%

1409-3213 (4622)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-12 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

539h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.