Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jagiellonia Bialystok finish first in UEL league phase?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$0.52
-$23.7
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
91h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $16.13 | $0.34 | -$15.83 | 45% 16737-20424 (37161) |
 thefakenickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.93 | $0.04 | -$1.89 | 51% 983-956 (1939) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.69 | $0.04 | -$1.65 | 23% 2598-8905 (11503) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $1.19 | $0.03 | -$1.17 | 16% 1419-7677 (9096) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.61 | $0.03 | -$0.58 | 26% 601-1695 (2296) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.09 | $0.02 | -$1.06 | 64% 1207-689 (1896) |
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.07 | $0.02 | -$1.05 | 45% 7293-8812 (16105) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.48 | $0.01 | -$0.47 | 16% 419-2247 (2666) |
Invested
$16.13
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$15.83
Record
45%
16737-20424 (37161)
thefakenickCTR<$100Invested
$1.93
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.89
Record
51%
983-956 (1939)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$0.04
PnL
-$1.65
Record
23%
2598-8905 (11503)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.17
Record
16%
1419-7677 (9096)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.58
Record
26%
601-1695 (2296)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.06
Record
64%
1207-689 (1896)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.05
Record
45%
7293-8812 (16105)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.47
Record
16%
419-2247 (2666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.