Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
$476.71
9¢ → 19.5¢
+118% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
303h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA bands1CTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $181.35 | $498.73 | +$317.38 | 49% 413-426 (839) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $238.6 | $354.55 | +$81.62 | 54% 1460-1226 (2686) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $99.06 | $156.2 | +$63.45 | 45% 2985-3684 (6669) |
CR cry.eth2ARB<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $74.7 | $120.27 | +$90.29 | 39% 10157-15760 (25917) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 92¢ | $66.88 | $61.07 | -$5.82 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $2.91 | $59.2 | +$96.11 | |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.67 | $21.34 | +$14.13 | 51% 2587-2523 (5110) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.4¢ | $10.96 | $11.4 | -$0.36 | 50% 21206-21476 (42682) |
ME MenacingTurtleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $0.99 | $1.44 | +$0.5 | 58% 296-215 (511) |
Invested
$181.35
Value
$498.73
PnL
+$317.38
Record
49%
413-426 (839)
Invested
$238.6
Value
$354.55
PnL
+$81.62
Record
54%
1460-1226 (2686)
Invested
$99.06
Value
$156.2
PnL
+$63.45
Record
45%
2985-3684 (6669)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$120.27
PnL
+$90.29
Record
39%
10157-15760 (25917)
Both legs:
Invested
$0.67
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$14.13
Record
51%
2587-2523 (5110)
Invested
$10.96
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0.36
Record
50%
21206-21476 (42682)
Invested
$0.99
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
296-215 (511)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
19.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.