Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 88¢ · $510 held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$509.65
$249.74
39.8¢ → 88¢
+121% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
845h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Yesavg 31.9¢ | $106.44 | $296.88 | +$183.43 | 41% 2127-3055 (5182) |
 probability | Yesavg 25.4¢ | $20.04 | $103.93 | +$74.12 | 40% 1583-2384 (3967) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 77.4¢ | $94.71 | $102.39 | +$7.68 | 45% 3009-3702 (6711) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Noavg 33.9¢ | $16.93 | $5.5 | -$11.05 | 44% 507-657 (1164) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $5.7 | $0.95 | -$4.45 | 51% 2598-2533 (5131) |
TimeTravelerInvested
$106.44
Value
$296.88
PnL
+$183.43
Record
41%
2127-3055 (5182)
probabilityInvested
$20.04
Value
$103.93
PnL
+$74.12
Record
40%
1583-2384 (3967)
Invested
$94.71
Value
$102.39
PnL
+$7.68
Record
45%
3009-3702 (6711)
Invested
$16.93
Value
$5.5
PnL
-$11.05
Record
44%
507-657 (1164)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$4.45
Record
51%
2598-2533 (5131)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.