Will Jaafar Jackson win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $465 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$464.55
-$4.02
99.6¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.6¢ | $398.65 | $382.68 | -$0.88 | 58% 21162-15379 (36541) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $79.78 | $79.52 | -$0.26 | 53% 23490-20724 (44214) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $3.41 | $2.19 | -$2.93 | 48% 1352-1489 (2841) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.11 | $0.16 | +$0.05 | 19% 2858-12194 (15052) |
Invested
$398.65
Value
$382.68
PnL
-$0.88
Record
58%
21162-15379 (36541)
Invested
$79.78
Value
$79.52
PnL
-$0.26
Record
53%
23490-20724 (44214)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$2.19
PnL
-$2.93
Record
48%
1352-1489 (2841)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.16
PnL
+$0.05
Record
19%
2858-12194 (15052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.