Will Italy win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

-$28.13

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 97.4¢

-1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,103

Combined PnL-$34.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$8.45

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$6.26

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

780h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 98.1¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$7.13	63% 783-469 (1252)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$18.95	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 98.1¢	$413.9	$411.66	-$2.24	42% 7028-9819 (16847)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 97.9¢	$208.41	$202.91	-$3.05	49% 1756-1842 (3598)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.2¢	$179.83	$178.67	-$1.16	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$72.13	$71.21	-$0.92	49% 8853-9359 (18212)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$34.32	$34.14	-$0.18	31% 3488-7778 (11266)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$31.94	$31.22	-$0.72	44% 6482-8172 (14654)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$2.19	$8.45	+$6.26	18% 4284-20059 (24343)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$6.05	$6.01	-$0.04	55% 4411-3608 (8019)

P1kaso

Invested

$2,491.25

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$7.13

Record

63%

783-469 (1252)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,583.76

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$18.95

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

godblessme2026

Invested

$413.9

Value

$411.66

PnL

-$2.24

Record

42%

7028-9819 (16847)

PiEDawg

Invested

$208.41

Value

$202.91

PnL

-$3.05

Record

49%

1756-1842 (3598)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$179.83

Value

$178.67

PnL

-$1.16

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$72.13

Value

$71.21

PnL

-$0.92

Record

49%

8853-9359 (18212)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$34.32

Value

$34.14

PnL

-$0.18

Record

31%

3488-7778 (11266)

korda77<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

$31.22

PnL

-$0.72

Record

44%

6482-8172 (14654)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.19

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$6.26

Record

18%

4284-20059 (24343)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.05

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

780h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.