Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $461 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$460.77

Combined PnL

-$430.36

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.9¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$455.71

Total Shares458

Combined PnL-$14.78

Yes8 traders

Total Value$5.06

Total Shares1,378

Combined PnL-$415.58

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4970h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rated	Noavg 99.7¢	$368.85	$210.94	-$13.56	29% 2940-7182 (10122)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 99.9¢	$182.82	$182.09	-$0.73	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$62.24	$61.69	-$0.54	43% 8733-11387 (20120)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$2.55	$3.05	+$0.7	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 94.4¢	$0.94	$1	+$0.05	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
paddaaCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$41.24	$0.78	-$40.45	57% 867-665 (1532)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yes	$0.55	$0.55	-$6.75	53% 23476-20702 (44178)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.11	$0.26	+$0.16	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
CR cry.eth2CTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$761.66	$0.21	-$367.98	39% 10143-15757 (25900)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$1.06	$0.12	-$0.94	77% 12683-3868 (16551)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.03	$0.07	+$0.04	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.28	$0.03	-$0.35	31% 3237-7104 (10341)

rated

Invested

$368.85

Value

$210.94

PnL

-$13.56

Record

29%

2940-7182 (10122)

smallreceipt

Invested

$182.82

Value

$182.09

PnL

-$0.73

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$62.24

Value

$61.69

PnL

-$0.54

Record

43%

8733-11387 (20120)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.55

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.7

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$0.94

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

paddaaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.24

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$40.45

Record

57%

867-665 (1532)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$6.75

Record

53%

23476-20702 (44178)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.26

PnL

+$0.16

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

cry.eth2CTR

Yes

Invested

$761.66

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$367.98

Record

39%

10143-15757 (25900)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.06

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.94

Record

77%

12683-3868 (16551)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.35

Record

31%

3237-7104 (10341)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Late

4970h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.