Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.08
-$154.53
7.6¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4949h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaaCTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $151.46 | $1.94 | -$149.52 | 57% 872-668 (1540) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.07 | $0.07 | -$4.63 | 53% 23842-20976 (44818) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.05 | -$0.05 | 26% 7367-21150 (28517) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.9¢ | $0 | $0.01 | +$0.01 | 33% 7015-13993 (21008) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $0.26 | $0.01 | -$0.33 | 32% 3291-7156 (10447) |
paddaaCTRInvested
$151.46
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$149.52
Record
57%
872-668 (1540)
Invested
$0.07
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$4.63
Record
53%
23842-20976 (44818)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.05
Record
26%
7367-21150 (28517)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
33%
7015-13993 (21008)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.33
Record
32%
3291-7156 (10447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.