Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2027?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $619 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$618.57
$35.18
93.8¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PK pkz | Yesavg 91.3¢ | $438.76 | $436.35 | +$35.69 | 57% 459-345 (804) |
0X 0x26b166604677eaef5f2e81b716f539ed2857cc81 | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $182.73 | $182.22 | -$0.51 | 54% 280-243 (523) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.