Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $413 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$413.04
$17.3
80.6¢ → 87¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
1282h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BE Beyonddream | Noavg 81¢ | $306.63 | $329.34 | +$22.71 | 61% 200-129 (329) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $35.67 | $40.83 | +$5.16 | 38% 560-933 (1493) |
HU hugecaulkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $19.5 | $19.5 | +$0 | — 2-6 (8) |
 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $24.41 | $13.83 | -$10.58 | 37% 182-313 (495) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $9.54 | $9.54 | +$0 | 91% 918-94 (1012) |
Invested
$306.63
Value
$329.34
PnL
+$22.71
Record
61%
200-129 (329)
Invested
$35.67
Value
$40.83
PnL
+$5.16
Record
38%
560-933 (1493)
Invested
$19.5
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$0
Record
—
2-6 (8)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100Invested
$24.41
Value
$13.83
PnL
-$10.58
Record
37%
182-313 (495)
Talophex<$100Invested
$9.54
Value
$9.54
PnL
+$0
Record
91%
918-94 (1012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.