Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $234 held · ends Apr 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$234.37
-$135.81
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
210h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.2¢ | $204.82 | $206.17 | +$1.15 | 77% 11690-3585 (15275) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $73.01 | $10.59 | -$62.42 | 56% 18365-14704 (33069) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $50.91 | $7.38 | -$43.53 | 73% 11083-4091 (15174) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $26.04 | $5.11 | -$20.93 | 38% 2935-4691 (7626) |
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $7.78 | $2.9 | -$4.87 | 36% 1887-3307 (5194) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.38 | $1.8 | -$5.2 | 21% 2284-8696 (10980) |
Invested
$204.82
Value
$206.17
PnL
+$1.15
Record
77%
11690-3585 (15275)
Invested
$73.01
Value
$10.59
PnL
-$62.42
Record
56%
18365-14704 (33069)
Invested
$50.91
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$43.53
Record
73%
11083-4091 (15174)
Invested
$26.04
Value
$5.11
PnL
-$20.93
Record
38%
2935-4691 (7626)
Invested
$7.78
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$4.87
Record
36%
1887-3307 (5194)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.38
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$5.2
Record
21%
2284-8696 (10980)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.