Will Iran win Group C at the 2027 AFC Asian Cup?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Feb 6, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.1K
$162.36
90.3¢ → 96.3¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LazarusGroup | Noavg 90.2¢ | $992.2 | $1.1K | +$84.7 | — |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Noavg 90¢ | $900 | $979 | +$79 | — |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $40.93 | $39 | -$1.47 | — 0-12 (12) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $35.01 | $30.91 | -$4.1 | — 1-10 (11) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 94.3¢ | $188.6 | $16.28 | +$4.37 | 60% 18-12 (30) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $0.25 | $0.11 | -$0.14 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
LazarusGroupInvested
$992.2
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$84.7
Record
—
Invested
$900
Value
$979
PnL
+$79
Record
—
Invested
$40.93
Value
$39
PnL
-$1.47
Record
—
0-12 (12)
Invested
$35.01
Value
$30.91
PnL
-$4.1
Record
—
1-10 (11)
HaradwaithInvested
$188.6
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$4.37
Record
60%
18-12 (30)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$0.14
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.