Will Iran target an Arab country by November 15, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$2.2K
$6.74
98.3¢ → 98.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 yen4u | Yesavg 98.7¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$0 | 86% 797-133 (930) |
AR Arman2 | Yesavg 92.1¢ | $100 | $107.15 | +$7.15 | 58% 324-238 (562) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $14.74 | $16.34 | -$0.41 | 57% 608-457 (1065) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.