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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Independence Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 67%
Total Value
$13.55
Combined PnL
$0
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 8 top traders (67%)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x4b4657ca...9c5a12
Slug
will-independence-movement-win-the-most-seats-in-the-2026-lebanese-parliamentary-election