Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 1.0¢ · $501 held · ends Nov 2

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$501.27

Combined PnL

$10.77

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 1¢

-99% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$444.17

Total Shares510

Combined PnL+$60.04

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.09

Total Shares193

Combined PnL-$49.28

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR	Noavg 79¢	$382.88	$424.17	+$41.29	61% 203-132 (335)
MI Miojinho<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$42.72	$38.22	-$4.5	58% 72-53 (125)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$1.25	$20	+$18.75	72% 8306-3183 (11489)
seal7<$100	Yesavg 43.3¢	$60.21	$17.4	-$42.81	49% 287-300 (587)
GG GGLPL<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$3.44	$1.47	-$1.97	50% 697-693 (1390)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR

Invested

$382.88

Value

$424.17

PnL

+$41.29

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

Miojinho<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.72

Value

$38.22

PnL

-$4.5

Record

58%

72-53 (125)

TyshaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$20

PnL

+$18.75

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

seal7<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.21

Value

$17.4

PnL

-$42.81

Record

49%

287-300 (587)

GGLPL<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.44

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$1.97

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4711.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

4811.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.