Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $70 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$69.66
-$100.08
56.3¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
4924h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
19 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $33.44 | $37.98 | +$4.54 | 48% 1967-2120 (4087) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 28.7¢ | $48.24 | $23.34 | +$13.44 | 51% 2575-2507 (5082) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 31.6¢ | $2.53 | $8 | +$5.46 | 31% 4457-9735 (14192) |
 4751346CTR | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $241.57 | $0.2 | -$241.36 | 73% 1314-495 (1809) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$1.56 | — 4-0 (4) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.05 | $0.05 | -$4.97 | 40% 6509-9769 (16278) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.03 | $0.03 | -$2.81 | 47% 10333-11806 (22139) |
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $5.89 | $0.01 | +$127.19 | 39% 10144-15757 (25901) |
Invested
$33.44
Value
$37.98
PnL
+$4.54
Record
48%
1967-2120 (4087)
Invested
$48.24
Value
$23.34
PnL
+$13.44
Record
51%
2575-2507 (5082)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$8
PnL
+$5.46
Record
31%
4457-9735 (14192)
4751346CTRInvested
$241.57
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$241.36
Record
73%
1314-495 (1809)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$1.56
Record
—
4-0 (4)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$4.97
Record
40%
6509-9769 (16278)
Invested
$0.03
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$2.81
Record
47%
10333-11806 (22139)
Invested
$5.89
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$127.19
Record
39%
10144-15757 (25901)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.