Will IG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $596 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$596.44
-$0.3
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $169.83 | $169.75 | -$0.09 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $119.88 | $119.82 | -$0.06 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.85 | -$0.05 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $93.89 | $93.84 | -$0.05 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.93 | -$0.02 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.49 | $49.47 | -$0.02 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.81 | $13.8 | -$0.01 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
Invested
$169.83
Value
$169.75
PnL
-$0.09
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$119.88
Value
$119.82
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$93.89
Value
$93.84
PnL
-$0.05
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.93
PnL
-$0.02
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$49.49
Value
$49.47
PnL
-$0.02
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$0.01
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.