Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $51 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

Total Value

$51.03

Combined PnL

-$24.17

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$50.85

Total Shares51

Combined PnL+$8.9

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.18

Total Shares355

Combined PnL-$33.07

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4926h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$93.19	$40.86	+$7.6	51% 2576-2507 (5083)
DumplingBMF<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$10	+$1.3	69% 1892-868 (2760)
TE technician2CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$40.01	$0.08	-$39.03	53% 492-439 (931)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$3.6	58% 15789-11494 (27283)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$4.8	$0.03	-$4.77	17% 4496-22003 (26499)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.45	$0.01	+$16.83	39% 10144-15757 (25901)
4751346CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.26	$0.01	-$1.25	73% 1314-495 (1809)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$1.31	$0	-$1.26	48% 1967-2120 (4087)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	+$0	18% 245-1134 (1379)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Invested

$93.19

Value

$40.86

PnL

+$7.6

Record

51%

2576-2507 (5083)

DumplingBMF<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$10

PnL

+$1.3

Record

69%

1892-868 (2760)

technician2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.01

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$39.03

Record

53%

492-439 (931)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.6

Record

58%

15789-11494 (27283)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.77

Record

17%

4496-22003 (26499)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$16.83

Record

39%

10144-15757 (25901)

4751346CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.25

Record

73%

1314-495 (1809)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.31

Value

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

1967-2120 (4087)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Late

4926h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

21 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.