Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "I Play Rocky" win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $72 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$72.5

Combined PnL

-$63.05

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$64.9

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$49.56

Yes8 traders

Total Value$7.59

Total Shares7,343

Combined PnL-$112.61

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+69 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel	Noavg 99.9¢	$200.67	$64.9	+$49.56	47% 10370-11828 (22198)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$30.23	$3.6	-$72.96	47% 1357-1500 (2857)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$20.76	$1.96	-$20.21	39% 2906-4507 (7413)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$8.33	$0.75	-$7.58	18% 108-506 (614)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$5.56	$0.75	-$4.81	39% 681-1087 (1768)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.74	$0.22	-$4.45	53% 23766-20936 (44702)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.07	$0.13	+$0.07	42% 889-1206 (2095)
0X 0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100	Yes	$0.12	$0.12	-$2.52	21% 42-156 (198)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.21	$0.06	-$0.15	27% 600-1658 (2258)

quietparcel

Invested

$200.67

Value

$64.9

PnL

+$49.56

Record

47%

10370-11828 (22198)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.23

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$72.96

Record

47%

1357-1500 (2857)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.76

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$20.21

Record

39%

2906-4507 (7413)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.33

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$7.58

Record

18%

108-506 (614)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$4.81

Record

39%

681-1087 (1768)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$4.45

Record

53%

23766-20936 (44702)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

42%

889-1206 (2095)

0xc023bee917480fed315d186a7b223f33c09a0fe8-1793567845085CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.52

Record

21%

42-156 (198)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

27%

600-1658 (2258)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+69 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.