Will "I Knew It, I Knew You" from Toy Story 5 win Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $113 held · ends Mar 14, 2027
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$112.55
-$3.46
85.5¢ → 83¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $73.1 | $70.55 | -$2.55 | 47% 3118-3459 (6577) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $24.03 | $22.41 | -$1.62 | 61% 2756-1755 (4511) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $18.88 | $19.59 | +$0.71 | 51% 2519-2403 (4922) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.