Will Hyperliquid reach $120 by December 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $492 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$492.44
$157.39
62.3¢ → 91¢
+46% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 timebrotime | Noavg 60¢ | $114.89 | $175.29 | +$60.39 | 67% 887-432 (1319) |
PH phdcapital | Noavg 60¢ | $108.36 | $164.35 | +$56.89 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
 esports095<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $61.76 | $85.62 | +$23.86 | 58% 649-466 (1115) |
LA Lasting-Dessert<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $29.5 | $45.5 | +$16.25 | 90% 563-66 (629) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $21.69 | $21.69 | -$0 | 77% 11092-3384 (14476) |
timebrotimeInvested
$114.89
Value
$175.29
PnL
+$60.39
Record
67%
887-432 (1319)
Invested
$108.36
Value
$164.35
PnL
+$56.89
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
esports095<$100Invested
$61.76
Value
$85.62
PnL
+$23.86
Record
58%
649-466 (1115)
Invested
$29.5
Value
$45.5
PnL
+$16.25
Record
90%
563-66 (629)
Invested
$21.69
Value
$21.69
PnL
-$0
Record
77%
11092-3384 (14476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.