Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

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8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.17

Combined PnL

-$21.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares336

Combined PnL-$21.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$11.71	$0.08	-$11.63	38% 1235-2012 (3247)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$2.12	$0.03	-$2.09	13% 549-3630 (4179)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$1.67	37% 4059-6782 (10841)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$1.67	31% 510-1143 (1653)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$1.67	31% 519-1170 (1689)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.25	$0.01	-$1.42	23% 1808-6060 (7868)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.42	17% 396-1983 (2379)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.01	$0	-$0.01	17% 4506-22058 (26564)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.71

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$11.63

Record

38%

1235-2012 (3247)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.09

Record

13%

549-3630 (4179)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.67

Record

37%

4059-6782 (10841)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.67

Record

31%

510-1143 (1653)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.67

Record

31%

519-1170 (1689)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.42

Record

23%

1808-6060 (7868)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.42

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

17%

4506-22058 (26564)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.