Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $863 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$862.57
$76.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 92.6¢ | $628.9 | $659.02 | +$30.12 | 41% 1354-1916 (3270) |
 saintaphextwinCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $147.97 | $197.42 | +$49.45 | 39% 394-620 (1014) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.4 | $4.8 | +$2.4 | 18% 522-2339 (2861) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.33 | $1.33 | -$5.01 | 57% 3057-2313 (5370) |
probabilityInvested
$628.9
Value
$659.02
PnL
+$30.12
Record
41%
1354-1916 (3270)
saintaphextwinCTRInvested
$147.97
Value
$197.42
PnL
+$49.45
Record
39%
394-620 (1014)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$2.4
Record
18%
522-2339 (2861)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$5.01
Record
57%
3057-2313 (5370)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.