Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 54¢ · $11K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$10.9K
$142.26
53.5¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Late
738h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
17 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 52.5¢ | $5.4K | $5.5K | +$104.73 | 66% 882-453 (1335) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Noavg 44.3¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$139.79 | 41% 1997-2832 (4829) |
 extractive-manateeCTR | Noavg 49¢ | $9.25 | $1.0K | -$53.32 | 33% 523-1059 (1582) |
KE kegli | Yesavg 60¢ | $180 | $802.5 | -$47.5 | 51% 47-46 (93) |
 probability | Yesavg 54.8¢ | $300.91 | $293.97 | -$6.93 | 41% 1399-2007 (3406) |
 thefakenick | Yesavg 53¢ | $265 | $267.5 | +$2.5 | 56% 828-651 (1479) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $61.2 | $64.2 | +$3 | 41% 1295-1879 (3174) |
Invested
$5,401.09
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$104.73
Record
66%
882-453 (1335)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$2,794.85
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$139.79
Record
41%
1997-2832 (4829)
extractive-manateeCTRInvested
$9.25
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$53.32
Record
33%
523-1059 (1582)
Invested
$180
Value
$802.5
PnL
-$47.5
Record
51%
47-46 (93)
probabilityInvested
$300.91
Value
$293.97
PnL
-$6.93
Record
41%
1399-2007 (3406)
thefakenickInvested
$265
Value
$267.5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
56%
828-651 (1479)
Invested
$61.2
Value
$64.2
PnL
+$3
Record
41%
1295-1879 (3174)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.