Will Hsieh Lung-chieh win the next Tainan Mayor election?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 29

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$9.81

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 97¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL+$15.46

Yes2 traders

Total Value$19.67

Total Shares645

Combined PnL-$5.66

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 96¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.19	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 96.1¢	$115.35	$116.34	+$0.99	11% 35-270 (305)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$77.04	$77.56	+$0.52	52% 5263-4776 (10039)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$57.66	$58.17	+$0.51	28% 2400-6141 (8541)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$26	$26.18	+$0.18	86% 32-5 (37)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$20.96	$16.32	-$4.64	39% 1043-1626 (2669)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$11.86	$11.94	+$0.08	66% 4044-2048 (6092)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$4.37	$3.36	-$1.02	4% 5-124 (129)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$1,332.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.19

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

godblessme2026

Invested

$115.35

Value

$116.34

PnL

+$0.99

Record

11%

35-270 (305)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$77.04

Value

$77.56

PnL

+$0.52

Record

52%

5263-4776 (10039)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$57.66

Value

$58.17

PnL

+$0.51

Record

28%

2400-6141 (8541)

korda77<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$0.18

Record

86%

32-5 (37)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.96

Value

$16.32

PnL

-$4.64

Record

39%

1043-1626 (2669)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$11.86

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

66%

4044-2048 (6092)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.37

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$1.02

Record

5-124 (129)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.