Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$37.84

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 97.3¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$678.78

Total Shares24,683

Combined PnL+$41.97

No4 traders

Total Value$736.67

Total Shares757

Combined PnL-$4.13

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

803h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$448.33	$450.19	+$1.86	41% 2124-3048 (5172)
PE peepeepooppoop	Noavg 97.3¢	$789.61	$318.32	-$4.02	51% 2575-2507 (5082)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 98.1¢	$291.21	$288.83	-$2.38	46% 9374-11127 (20501)
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR	Yesavg 2.4¢	$141.07	$159.94	+$22.88	44% 506-657 (1163)
PU purplegatto	Noavg 95.6¢	$117.72	$119.79	+$2.08	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$45.1	$54.76	+$9.66	53% 8527-7603 (16130)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$16.22	$9.73	+$0.19	43% 10590-14068 (24658)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$4.2	$5.31	+$0.81	31% 3237-7104 (10341)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.36	$4.94	+$4.58	17% 4487-21970 (26457)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.86	$3.64	+$2.17	39% 10143-15757 (25900)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$448.33

Value

$450.19

PnL

+$1.86

Record

41%

2124-3048 (5172)

peepeepooppoop

Invested

$789.61

Value

$318.32

PnL

-$4.02

Record

51%

2575-2507 (5082)

smallreceipt

Invested

$291.21

Value

$288.83

PnL

-$2.38

Record

46%

9374-11127 (20501)

0x53eCc53E7CTR

Yes

Invested

$141.07

Value

$159.94

PnL

+$22.88

Record

44%

506-657 (1163)

purplegatto

Invested

$117.72

Value

$119.79

PnL

+$2.08

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.1

Value

$54.76

PnL

+$9.66

Record

53%

8527-7603 (16130)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$0.19

Record

43%

10590-14068 (24658)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.81

Record

31%

3237-7104 (10341)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$4.58

Record

17%

4487-21970 (26457)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$2.17

Record

39%

10143-15757 (25900)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

803h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.3%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.