Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $202 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$202.23
-$12.52
52.7¢ → 43¢
-18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Noavg 56¢ | $113.31 | $99.87 | -$13.44 | — 1-6 (7) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $65.85 | $62.5 | -$3.35 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $31.2 | $30 | -$1.2 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $3.09 | $6.45 | +$3.35 | 24% 82-265 (347) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Noavg 19¢ | $1.3 | $3.42 | +$2.12 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
Invested
$113.31
Value
$99.87
PnL
-$13.44
Record
—
1-6 (7)
Invested
$65.85
Value
$62.5
PnL
-$3.35
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
$30
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$3.35
Record
24%
82-265 (347)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$3.42
PnL
+$2.12
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.