Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 song this week?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $107 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$106.72
-$108.52
19.3¢ → 2.4¢
-88% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 85.1¢ | $69.23 | $62.06 | -$2.58 | 16% 417-2186 (2603) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $31 | $30.26 | +$5.46 | 36% 1958-3471 (5429) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $102.85 | $12.82 | -$90.03 | 61% 356-226 (582) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $27.55 | $1.1 | -$16.45 | 20% 2360-9245 (11605) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $20 | $0.48 | -$4.92 | 25% 1615-4804 (6419) |
Istaroth<$100Invested
$69.23
Value
$62.06
PnL
-$2.58
Record
16%
417-2186 (2603)
Invested
$31
Value
$30.26
PnL
+$5.46
Record
36%
1958-3471 (5429)
Invested
$102.85
Value
$12.82
PnL
-$90.03
Record
61%
356-226 (582)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$27.55
Value
$1.1
PnL
-$16.45
Record
20%
2360-9245 (11605)
Invested
$20
Value
$0.48
PnL
-$4.92
Record
25%
1615-4804 (6419)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.